1560: Francis II lives, but Elizabeth I dies

[JennyB]

The Queen of France is now heir to the thrones of both England and Scotland. How does she press her claim, and who disputes it?

Alternatively, would it be more interesting to have Francis die on schedule, and have Elizabeth follow him shortly after Mary's return to Scotland - either before or after her marriage to Darnley?

 

[AltoRegnant]

The Queen of France is now heir to the thrones of both England and Scotland. How does she press her claim, and who disputes it?

Alternatively, would it be more interesting to have Francis die on schedule, and have Elizabeth follow him shortly after Mary's return to Scotland - either before or after her marriage to Darnley?

Welp the hundred years war just became a redundant and moot point

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

The Queen of France is now heir to the thrones of both England and Scotland. How does she press her claim, and who disputes it?

Mary Stuart is heir to squat. By terms of Henry VIII's will, the heir is Frances Brandon, duchess of Suffolk (if still alive by the POD) or her daughter, Katherine Grey (if she isn't). No one's going to allow the Stuarts to jump up the succession queue like OTL. Not if it means a Catholic (and worse still, French) succession.

Hilariously enough, Darnley might still end up as king-consort, just to Queen Katherine I instead of Mary.

 

[Fabius Maximus]

No one's going to allow the Stuarts to jump up the succession queue like OTL. Not if it means a Catholic (and worse still, French) succession.

IDK, most of the country is still Catholic at this point. I'm not sure how far Protestantism had spread amongst the nobility, but at least some (like the Howards) remained Catholic.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

IDK, most of the country is still Catholic at this point. I'm not sure how far Protestantism had spread amongst the nobility, but at least some (like the Howards) remained Catholic.

True. But even if they ARE still predominantly Catholic, I'm not sure that ANY self-respecting Englishman would want to be ruled by the French king.

A (temporary) union with Spain or some other Catholic country I suspect they would've gone along to get along, but a union with France (however temporary - not sure if the British and French thrones would be split here) will rankle.

Besides, Frances is IN London, AFAIK she was some sort of Catholic, Katherine is still a teenager (and educated for the last few years under a Catholic regime) so likely her religious views aren't as pronounced as her late sister's. The French still have to CONQUER England. Once Marie de Guise goes, Scotland no doubt descendsinto anarchy. Which means France will have not ONE but TWO unruly kingdoms to conquer.

 

[Ivan Lupo]

This scenario could easily spiral into civil war. While the descendants of Margaret Tudor were displaced from the succession in favor of those of Mary Tudor, Margaret's line technically had a superior claim and may also have the superior resources to act on that claim.

There are also descendants of John of Gaunt flitting around in Portugal as well.

 

[Fabius Maximus]

True. But even if they ARE still predominantly Catholic, I'm not sure that ANY self-respecting Englishman would want to be ruled by the French king.

A (temporary) union with Spain or some other Catholic country I suspect they would've gone along to get along, but a union with France (however temporary - not sure if the British and French thrones would be split here) will rankle.

Besides, Frances is IN London, AFAIK she was some sort of Catholic, Katherine is still a teenager (and educated for the last few years under a Catholic regime) so likely her religious views aren't as pronounced as her late sister's. The French still have to CONQUER England. Once Marie de Guise goes, Scotland no doubt descendsinto anarchy. Which means France will have not ONE but TWO unruly kingdoms to conquer.

I didn't know about Frances and Katherine being Catholics... In that case I'd put the money on them, since Catholics would support them to get a co-religionist on the throne, and moderate Protestants and people who just go along with whatever the official religion would also support them due to their claim, and I expect that these three groups together would be enough to secure their rule.

I'm not sure that being France would be a deal-breaker on its own. After all, England had had a (admittedly unpopular) foreign monarch in the person of Philip of Spain just a few years previously. So I think that, if Frances and Katherine are somehow taken out of the picture, Mary could potentially become Queen of England, although I expect that Parliament would impose some conditions designed to prevent England from becoming a French province, much as they'd done with Philip.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

I didn't know about Frances and Katherine being Catholics... In that case I'd put the money on them, since Catholics would support them to get a co-religionist on the throne, and moderate Protestants and people who just go along with whatever the official religion would also support them due to their claim, and I expect that these three groups together would be enough to secure their rule.

I'm not saying that they were Catholics, but I'm yet to read that Frances converted to Protestantism. And Mary's keeping the family under close supervision during her reign would mean that for the last few years (13-18yo), Katherine has probably been getting a Catholic "re-education" or at least outwardly Catholic.

I'm not sure that being France would be a deal-breaker on its own. After all, England had had a (admittedly unpopular) foreign monarch in the person of Philip of Spain just a few years previously. So I think that, if Frances and Katherine are somehow taken out of the picture, Mary could potentially become Queen of England, although I expect that Parliament would impose some conditions designed to prevent England from becoming a French province, much as they'd done with Philip.

Difference being, of course, that D. Felipe married Mary once she was queen. England could make those terms as much as they like. Who's to say that the French will accept them? And if they don't, that they won't invade and press their claim at sword point?
Felipe and the Habsburgs had no interest in pissing England off (which was why Felipe, the evil one of the black legend, actually attempted to restrain Mary as far as the burning of heretics and other such punishments were concerned IIRC), so they wouldn't have invaded, even when Mary died (not saying that Felipe won't suggest a match between D. Carlos/ Joao Manuel of Portugal and Katherine). Felipe was interested in keeping England friendly, which was why he protected Elizabeth from the worst papal sanctions until the 1580s. Mary, QoS and the French would have zero such interest IMO

 

[Fabius Maximus]

Difference being, of course, that D. Felipe married Mary once she was queen. England could make those terms as much as they like. Who's to say that the French will accept them? And if they don't, that they won't invade and press their claim at sword point?

They might, but if it was a choice between "accept whatever terms the English offer and get the throne without a fight" and "invade England and potentially lose and end up with nothing", I expect that they'd go for the first option unless the terms are really outrageous.

 

[Tyler96]

Didn't Frances Brandon die in 1559, prior to the POD? If she is still alive and in the running, there might be some unease regarding her rather lowly second husband Adrian Stokes.

If Frances is dead, the big consideration is the youth of so many key figures- Mary, Francis, Darnley, and Katherine Grey (who hasn't yet discredited herself with the secret marriage to Seymour) are basically all teenagers, so much of the power will be in the hands of the adults around them. The only full-fledged adult with a stake in the succession is Margaret Douglas, who will undoubtedly be politicking on behalf of herself and her son.

Much would depend on the nature of Elizabeth's demise- how quickly does it happen? How quickly does news of it spread? Who do the people at the heart of her regime favour?

I'm with Kellan on the English being rather leery of being ruled by a French king, which makes things difficult for Mary. How much Mary and Francis could actually do to press their claim to England given their own domestic troubles may also be in question.

The best case scenario is probably fear of the French pushing the various figures in England into some form of cooperation (perhaps with a Darnley-Katherine marriage) and a moderate, conciliatory, road in terms of religion- going full fledged Catholic would undercut most of Mary's potential support, but that might stir up Protestant unrest, especially given the Protestant members of Elizabeth's regime that wouldn't like being turfed out of power. In any case, putting Darnley anywhere near the throne could end in disaster- Darnley is Darnley, after all. And Katherine didn't display the best judgement IOTL either.

Elsewise, you might get the Protestants making a power play with a claimant of their choice (Katherine?) and trying to exist on a rather slender base of support against the inevitable Catholic pushback. But Catholic loyalties might be divided as to who to back, the French will be stirring up trouble in Mary's name, but Margaret Douglas will also be intriguing, and there's the Spanish floating around in the background who will be pro-Catholic but anti-French.