Just as a fun thought exercise, here's my ranking/thoughts on how I think each of the "big five" Democratic candidates in 1980 would have done against Reagan:
1. Kennedy - I truly believe that RFK was the strongest candidate (besides possibly President Udall) that the Democrats could have run. He had the most name recognition of any Democrat in the country. His leadership ability, as demonstrated both in his brother's administration and in the Senate, is unparalleled. While yes, he is rather progressive for most Americans, his devout religiosity and moral authority make him well-respected by conservatives as well. Kennedy could also match Reagan in the charisma department, a tough sell for several of the other candidates.
2. Bentsen - As the incumbent Vice President, Bentsen would have had as much of the incumbent's advantage as you could get without President Udall himself running. With a strong base of support in the South and strong appeal for moderates and independents, I think it would have been tough for Reagan to paint Bentsen as a "tax and spend liberal". That said, Bentsen probably would not have done much to excite the Democratic base. He would have needed to pick someone special as his running mate to fire them up if he wanted to beat Reagan. Mondale would have probably been the most likely, as an olive branch to the liberals.
3. Mondale - Well-spoken and well-liked, Fritz nevertheless suffers here from a lack of nationwide exposure outside of the Midwest. Having never served as Vice President ITTL, Mondale is, to many Americans, just another liberal, union-oriented Senator. Mondale probably
could have beaten Reagan, but it would be a very, very tight race. I imagine Mondale would have probably chosen Bentsen as his running mate, assuming the VP would want to remain on the ticket with Fritz as he did with RFK.
4. Carter - ITTL, Carter does not benefit from any "outsider" status as he did in 1976 IOTL. Here, he's been a Senator since the mid-seventies, and a leading member of the Communitarian wing of the Democratic Party. If Carter had somehow clinched the nomination, he definitely would have needed a progressive running mate to placate the base. He would have also needed to reconcile with President Udall, as all throughout Udall's term, Carter had been one of his fiercest critics from within the party. Carter viewed Udall as his chief rival, after all. Could he have beaten Reagan? Hard to say.
5. Brown - Nothing against the man. I think "Governor Moonbeam" had his strengths and weaknesses as a national candidate. That said, I think he would have been the weakest candidate the Democrats might have nominated in 1980 here. His youth and image as friendly to the "hippies" and the "New Left" make him very easy to paint as out of touch by the Republicans. Besides, Brown's mercurial personality would have contrasted harshly with Reagan's upbeat, sunny optimism. I can only imagine that debates between the two would have been strongly in Reagan's favor. Brown would have to convince both the liberals
and communitarians that he could be their candidate. That's a tall order. I think Reagan wins over Brown, albeit narrowly.
Generally speaking, the LGBTQ+ community favor the liberal and progressive wings of the party, committed as they are to change and social progress.
The African-American community is split between the various factions. While Black Democrats are less likely than their white or Hispanic counterparts to describe themselves as "liberal" when polled, their views are largely in agreement with the rest of the party as a whole. Again, speaking in generalities, the Black community reports higher levels of religiosity and higher approval numbers for religious institutions than their fellow Democrats of other races. Unsurprisingly, Black Democrats are also more likely to view racism as a major issue in society, regardless of their positions on other political issues.
Thank you! Since the band has only just broken up (Dec. 1980), I'll answer this question in future updates. Stay tuned.
Cheers!
Interesting suggestions... I don't want to spoil too much before the transition update. But I will say that like his older brother, RFK considers himself an "idealist without illusions". He is more likely to take a realist view of foreign affairs than say... President Udall.