Development of the world if European age of exploration stillborn

[Kyro92]

Before I put forth the scenario, I have a request: please don't focus on your responses on the delay of European exploration and the plausibility of said delay. I'm asking this because that normally suck up all the oxygen in the discussion when this subject is discussed- I am hoping we can treat scenario as a given, even if your sceptical about its plausibility.

That said, the scenario: Portuguese funding for maritime exploration dwindles owing to some combination of financial setbacks, different royal personalities, court politics, and worse luck with exploratory expeditions running into disaster for one reason or another. As for the Americas- no patronage for any Christopher Columbus analogues is plausible enough, and even if European fisherman discover the Newfoundland fisheries the lack of interesting colonial targets on Eastern Seaboard leads Europe to largely ignore the discovery like they did with Greenland.

Again, even if you doubt the plausibility of this scenario, please suspend your disbelief.
…….
With that out of the way, how might history throughout the world without the Great Disruption of the Age of Discovery? Some tentative speculation:

…..
In the short term, this is an enormous boon for the Ottomans and the Islamic states of the Indian Ocean that were menaced by the Portuguese. The Ottomans would retain their monopoly on the Eastern trade routes, and at the same as their principal rivals the Hapsburgs would miss out on the financial windfall of colonialism.

France to would benefit from the weakened Hapsburgs, and in the longer term the non-existence of the Dutch and British colonial empires. Possibly sufficiently so that they’d be able to overcome the balance of power and achieve a sustained hegemony over Western Europe.

However I also think Russia would be well positioned over the longer term. With the advancement of artillery weapons, they would surely encroach upon the steppe as in OTL. Even if nations such as the Crimean Khanate held out longer due to support from the better financed Ottomans, I do think the Russians ultimately establishing control of those territories would be close to inevitable. This would bring a population boom in Russia courtesy of the Ukrainian breadbasket- but also, open the possibility of Russian advances into Central Asia and monopolizing the Silk Road trade for themselves, finally breaking the Ottoman’s trade monopoly.

By the 1800s, the European balance of power may well be a tripolar one between Russia, the Ottomans and France.
…..

Thinking now on China- given the role that the influx of Peruvian silver is theorized to have played in the destabilization of the Ming economy, the fall of the Ming and the rise of a Manchu dynasty might be avoided entirely. Regardless, there would be no reason for the Chinese to adopt an isolationist policy in so far as it was a reaction to European meddling. And going forward, artillery and firearms would mean that the Chinese would no longer be meaningfully threatened by steppe nomads. The only substantial threat to the survival of Chinese dynasties would then be internal revolt.

 

[Kyro92]

Now as for Subsaharan Africa...

Well, no colonialism means no maize and therefore no maize-driven population boom. OTOH it also means the depredations of the Atlantic slave trade would be avoided- although Africa would still be burdened by the ongoing Islamic slave trade. Which invites the question- just how much further would Islam advance into Africa.

For one, I think it would only be a matter of time before Ethiopia was conquered. There survival OTL against the alliance between the Ottomans and Somalis owed a lot to support from the Portuguese.

Surely at some point Islam and the Islamic slave trade would spread to the Great Lakes region- whether via the Sudan or the Swahili coast or the Islamised Ethiopia

 

[Kyro92]

I'd be interested to here speculation from people knowledgable about Mughal India about likely developments there. How much responsibility did the conflict with Portugal and later European meddling have for the destabilization of the Mughals over the following centuries?

 

[Jürgen]

Honestly even without a European Age of Discovery, I would still expect a discovery of America, but it will be one done by England or Denmark-Norway, and it will be one which focus on exploring Canada’s and New England’s coast. In case of Denmark-Norway any colonization will likely be pretty similar to how it dealt with Lapland and later Greenland. We will likely have to go to 1700 before any of them find anything of any real interests.

In Africa without the Portuguese, other Europeans will mostly stay out of it, we won’t see the rise of Europeanized African populations on the western coast of Africa, instead they keep being victimized by Sahel slaver states, instead of being able to defend themselves and victimize the inland populations. The lack of European transfer of American crops will result in lower population growth.

Asia too will suffer under the lack of access to American crops, the Qing if they gain power will be far less stable without the food surpluses caused by the introduction of American crops and likely fall in the 18th century. At the same time China will still have trouble with a expanding Russia, and so will Central Asia.

The lack of European traders makes the Silk Road far more important and Muslims dominant in the Indian Ocean. This will likely mean India will be under more pressure from Islam, at the same time, Russia will be trying to take over the Silk Road, if successful we will see the trade shift north to the Baltic, significant increasing the importance of the Baltic and Russia, Sweden and Denmark-Norway.

In Europe the American crops only really hit in the 18th century, most of the agricultural improvements we saw in the 16-18th century was caused by Old World crops and improvements in agricultural technics. So interesting European demography will likely only see minor butterflies up to 1700, of course the rutabaga may to some extent replace the potato in European agriculture and cuisine . It’s pretty interesting that Europe may be the least demographic affected of the discovery of America. A major difference is that Venice and Genova will likely do far better with the Asian trade mainly flowing through the Mediterranean, at least up the mid 17th century, where Russia establish a competing trade route.

 

[Leonidas]

Although Europe’s population would be lower without American crops, this might be offset by the lack of emigration. West Africa would also be less accessible without quinine to treat malaria.

 

[WhatSantayanaSaid]

Asia too will suffer under the lack of access to American crops, the Qing if they gain power will be far less stable without the food surpluses caused by the introduction of American crops and likely fall in the 18th century. At the same time China will still have trouble with a expanding Russia, and so will Central Asia.

Eh, no Columbian exchange means a far different course for the Ming dynasty and thus the Qing might not even rise in the first place. No Spanish silver means no Single Whip law or other such economic reforms. How the Ming economy would've continued without the influx of silver is beyond my expertise, but the severe reduction in the silver imports that the Ming had grown dependent upon (due to the Imjin War and Spanish trade policy+naval conflicts with the Protestant powers) would not have happened, worsening their decline and giving the Manchu an opportunity to conquer China. The Ming economy likely doesn't reach the same heights it did OTL while also not declining as quickly as it did OTL. Whether they can survive past the 1600s or not, that's another story altogether.

As for population growth and food surpluses, the New World crops were one of the factors which led to the unprecedented population growth the Qing experienced (no Chinese empire had exceeded 200 million before the Qing. The Qing hit 450 million in the mid 19th century). And that population growth was arguably of the factors that destabilized the Qing (land shortages, famines with much worse casualty counts, larger scale rebellions). Like the economy, the population wouldn't explode as quickly as it did, but the ruling dynasty would also not have to deal with the amplified consequences when things went south.

Also, the New World crops weren't the only cause for Qing population growth. China’s Population Expansion and Its Causes during the Qing Period, 1644–1911 lists "a synergy of (1) farming technology (rice yield and maize adoption), (2) farmland, and (3) disaster relief" as the primary drivers of Qing population growth.

All this to say, China probably doesn't become as strong as it did OTL during the era, but their issues also probably aren't as acute.

 

[Flavius Iulius Maiorianus]

How would no new world affect industrialization?

 

[cerebus]

There is an argument that without the new world discoveries the idea of scientific discoveries may not arise. This would not stop the start of industrialisation and invention but it would slow down the supercharging of the 17th & 18th Cs.

 

[raharris1973]

By the 1800s, the European balance of power may well be a tripolar one between Russia, the Ottomans and France.

Much depends on how the three play and use "the Poland card" between them.

For one, I think it would only be a matter of time before Ethiopia was conquered. Their survival OTL against the alliance between the Ottomans and Somalis owed a lot to support from the Portuguese.

Really, you think it was that essential.

I'd be interested to hear speculation from people knowledgable about Mughal India about likely developments there. How much responsibility did the conflict with Portugal and later European meddling have for the destabilization of the Mughals over the following centuries?

Remember, Mughal *rise* actually came only after Portuguese contact, you actually need to think even of how it would be affected too.

The lack of European traders makes the Silk Road far more important and Muslims dominant in the Indian Ocean. This will likely mean India will be under more pressure from Islam, at the same time, Russia will be trying to take over the Silk Road, if successful we will see the trade shift north to the Baltic, significant increasing the importance of the Baltic and Russia, Sweden and Denmark-Norway.

Yes on increased importance of the Baltic as Russia gets more connected to first Central Asia and then China, the Pacific and the wider Far East. But, it is a serious question how far south into the true steppe and Silk Road zone in Central Asia and how quickly, or if they are stuck mainly up in the forested fur-hunting latitudes north of the civilizational trade routes between the Far East and Middle East.

Asia too will suffer under the lack of access to American crops, the Qing if they gain power will be far less stable without the food surpluses caused by the introduction of American crops and likely fall in the 18th century. At the same time China will still have trouble with an expanding Russia, and so will Central Asia.

New World food crops began to make more land usable and boost China population, at least temporarily, even prior to the Qing, in the late Ming period already. China will have less inflation and growth of wealth of all kinds, population, precious metals, foodstuffs, etc.

 

[aaronupright]

I'd be interested to here speculation from people knowledgable about Mughal India about likely developments there. How much responsibility did the conflict with Portugal and later European meddling have for the destabilization of the Mughals over the following centuries?

The square root of fuck all.
The biggest cause of Mughal downfall was Nader Shah, the last of the C Asian conquerers. He crippled the Mughal Empire, sacke Delhi, took away Afghanistan and the massive food and manufacturing region of the Indus valley, as well as the great armaments mills in Lahore and Wazirabad.
Untul that Europeans were a non issue politically. We hear a lot of the Portugeuse victory at Diu, but whats often forgotten is that while the Egyptian-Venetian squadron was sunk (and contrary to common belief, they actually inflicted significant casualties on the Portuguese), the Portuguese failed in their attempt to take Diu itself.